Curse

BlueNovember · Apr 21, 2009, 09:51 PM // 21:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by higaru

50 lockpicks used on lock runs, ..., all picks broken from first run

Obviously you didn't break 50 in a run, (unless there's some new epic chest run I don't know about) so do you mean you broke one run's worth of keys?
That's how I read his post anyway. Unremarkable.

If it _was_ 50 picks broken in a row at 60% retain... that's
0.4^50, or 1.2676506 × 10^-20.
^_^
Surely something's up.

Reinfire · Apr 21, 2009, 10:15 PM // 22:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by SerenitySilverstar

*cough*TreasureChests/DoNotTouch/BuriedTreasure*cough*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Eragon Zarroc · Apr 21, 2009, 10:18 PM // 22:18

gives new meaning to cursed by fate ;-)

Grunntar · Apr 21, 2009, 10:27 PM // 22:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by higaru

50 lockpicks used on lock runs, all chests r eotn chests, all picks broken from first run...

That, indeed, is some bad luck!

I started tracking my success rate for chest running out of Boreal Station when I first decided to work on the Treasure Hunter and Wisdom titles. I kept track of the success of the first 10 chests, the number of golds vs purples, the relationship between retention rate and golds, and the effect of the time of day on the requirement of gold items. (I've always had a sneaking suspicion that higher req items drop more frequently when more people are online... I always seem to get req 12 and 13 items on the weekends.)

But, in almost 3,500 chests opened, I never got to 10 chests in a row without a successful retention. Not once. And you got to 50! So ya, pretty bad luck....

I usually averaged between 25 and 40 chests per session. Here are some things that I have found:

- The retention rate (for me) for the first ten chests of every run pretty much follows a bell curve, centered around your stated lockpick retention rate.

- The number of gold/rare item drops on weekday mornings is exactly the same as the rate on nights and weekends.

- Weapon requirements on gold items seem slightly better in the morning than on nights & weekends, though the numbers have been closing slightly as my sample gets bigger.

- My real retention rate for lockpicks in Ice Cliff Chasms runs about 2.5% *above* the stated retention rate. (Note that this research is specifically for this zone, with more than 3,000 data points. Your mileage may vary...)

I've thought about posting this information before, but never got around to it. It seemed appropriate here, so for what it's worth...

Darkstar The Legend · Apr 21, 2009, 10:35 PM // 22:35

Having run 5000+ chests in EoTN i can safely say that it is just a trend that will sometimes happen. I sometimes had trends where i got 80% of chests opened giving golds, other times i would get dozens of purples between each gold. Also despite a retain rate of something like 67% i would sometime break 20 lockpicks in a row, but other times i would have one lockpick last for 20 or 30 chests. its just one of those little quirks of statistics.

only 50 lockpicks is far too small a sample to draw any reasonable conclusions.

Like the poster above me all my data was collected from ice cliff chasms, i know that my overall retention rate was about 1.5% ABOVE the stated rate. I'll try to dig around and find the statistics i worked out for my overall gold/grape drop ratio.

Red Sonya · Apr 21, 2009, 10:58 PM // 22:58

This is one of the reasons I rarely use any lockpicks in EOTN. I have much better luck in Nightfall lots of golds and retaining my keys as well.

Wish Swiftdeath · Apr 21, 2009, 11:54 PM // 23:54

I advise you stay well clear of the zchest, you'll only get dissapointed

immortius · Apr 22, 2009, 12:01 AM // 00:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grunntar

- The number of gold/rare item drops on weekday mornings is exactly the same as the rate on nights and weekends.

- Weapon requirements on gold items seem slightly better in the morning than on nights & weekends, though the numbers have been closing slightly as my sample gets bigger.

What timezone are you on? :P

Random is as random does, green flavoured dog sings to dove.

MrTickle · Apr 22, 2009, 12:36 AM // 00:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wish Swiftdeath

I advise you stay well clear of the zchest, you'll only get dissapointed

lmao

I managed to break 15 in a row today and only 1 gold, purples and normal tomes. Them's the brakes

Shadowhaze · Apr 22, 2009, 12:57 AM // 00:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wish Swiftdeath

I advise you stay well clear of the zchest, you'll only get dissapointed

lol. Yeah.
But I have horrid luck at times too. Rare times I'll get something decent but most of the time it's merch fodder. *sigh*

Martin Alvito · Apr 22, 2009, 12:59 AM // 00:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueNovember

If it _was_ 50 picks broken in a row at 60% retain... that's
0.4^50, or 1.2676506 × 10^-20.
^_^
Surely something's up.

It's suspicious given two things that we already know:

1) Odds of getting struck by lightning (an incredibly improbable empirical occurrence, but one that does happen) are about 5x10^-7.
2) Computers cannot generate truly random strings of numbers.

Those of you that are shouting "probability" should be aware that the odds of anyone actually observing a 1.26 X 10^-20 event in a human lifetime are REALLY bad. It is very likely that the OP happened upon a series of events that was not independently distributed. How dependence resulted from the interaction of the OP's behavior and the program code that generates pseudo-random numbers is hard to say. More information about exactly how the OP ran the chest (time between opens, most likely) and how the program determines retention would be required.

Owik Gall · Apr 22, 2009, 01:59 AM // 01:59

This is why good gold weapons are EXPENSIVE. Have patience and keep looking until you find something.

higaru · Apr 22, 2009, 05:42 AM // 05:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueNovember

Obviously you didn't break 50 in a run, (unless there's some new epic chest run I don't know about) so do you mean you broke one run's worth of keys?
That's how I read his post anyway. Unremarkable.

If it _was_ 50 picks broken in a row at 60% retain... that's
0.4^50, or 1.2676506 × 10^-20.
^_^
Surely something's up.

dude sure it's not 1 run only! i was doing snowmen dungeon! and don't tell me it's not a good place for chest runs!
and yes they all broke from first use! and yes i got 48 purple items and 2 gold! i'm not complaining really for those smart shot trying to to comment here, but i seriously hope that Anet reworks the drop issue, i don't mind my lockpick breaking from first use! hell it's gambling and i'm ok with it, but they can at least make it drop a goldie instead of a purple so we can work on wisdom title as well as treasure!

Gli · Apr 22, 2009, 07:15 AM // 07:15

Man, I wish I was in your shoes, OP. I'm trying to max Unlucky after finishing Lucky some time ago, but I can't seem to break lockpicks for the life of me. I'd kill for the opportunity to break 50 lockpicks in a row.

Raven Wing · Apr 22, 2009, 08:19 AM // 08:19

I have used 348 zaishen keys and they all broke......waaaaaaaah

j/k^^

I guess breaking 50 in a row could happen, and it is as likely as someone getting a r8 perfect echovald shield or similar. In other words VERY unlikely, but still there do exist a few of these shields.

Yawgmoth · Apr 22, 2009, 08:32 AM // 08:32

99%+ golds being worthless merch food - blame the crappy game economy.

Cause is Hard Mode insane gold item droprates combined with Loot Scaling failure greatly limiting cash farm and at the same time allowing extreme overfarm of gold items.

Before HM+LS fiasco chestrunning was well worth it. Now it's a pure time and gold sink, zero hope for valuable drops (except Factions).